One of my Google+ friends (#shenanigans queen Kristina Sestan) made a post today about the Firefox phone. It started a bit of a discussion about the state of the mobile industry. It got me thinking about it and how I feel this year will pan out for all the companies involved so I thought I would post my predictions for the year ahead. Let’s start with the most divisive technology company amongst the online communities:
Apple
There will be a lot of doomsday articles about how Apple is losing it’s mojo however they will still continue to sell a lot of devices. Not as many as the stock market are expecting, causing further knocks on their share price, but still extremely strong.
I don’t think there will be too many surprises from Apple hardware wise. I expect an iPhone 5S like upgrade to the iPhone 5, an iPad mini with retina, a thinner iPad 5 and still no actual Apple TV, just the same black puck TV companion we have now. Apple will very likely pick up some more Mac sales due to customer resistance of Windows 8.
Where Apple will start making some changes is in their software. Don’t expect a completely different experience, more a minor upgrade (iOS 6.x not 7). However you will start to see some hints of future changes with the unification of design in Apple apps and a gradual removal of skeuomorphic design now that Sir Ive is in charge. This should prepare them for a big iOS change in 2014.
Google/Motorola
Google’s purchase of Motorola will start to show through much more this year. While it will be obvious that Google is leveraging their stake in Motorola to create hardware, expect them to tread carefully to avoid upsetting other Android manufacturers, particularly Samsung.
As you may have read, expect a Motorola phone at Google IO in May but it won’t be a Nexus (keeping the other Android manufacturers happy). Despite this, it will still end up Google’s flagship device until October-November, when the next Nexus phone will be unveiled (probably LG again despite the issues with the Nexus 4).
Android’s further improvements and abilities, including capabilities shown with the Google Glass developer hardware and further enhancements to Google Now, will enhance the calls for Apple to update iOS. This is the year that Android will take advantage of Apple’s stagnant position.
Samsung
Will continue to lead the Android charge despite reports they will launch their flagship phone this year using the Tizen OS. They will launch a Tizen phone, but it will be a limited rollout to test the feedback from the public. Once the public reject it (no apps + Samsung can’t make good software), it will be business as usual on Android.
Samsung will continue to dominate the Android market the same way they got to the top: bigger dimensions, better specs, more features.
Nokia
Nokia will improve their standing over last year, however that’s not a difficult thing. They will help Microsoft establish their position in third place in the mobile OS market, but that market share will still be very low for the investment they are making.
Sadly, as I pointed out in my previous article, Nokia and Windows already lost the war by not having an alternative back in 2010, the year that Android solidified it’s place as the iOS alternative.
Nokia’s continuing disappointing sales will decrease it’s value enough to start rumours of a buyout by a hardware-focused Microsoft by the end of the year.
Microsoft
Enterprise side, it will be business as usual for Microsoft. From a consumer point of view however, Microsoft will continue to struggle to hold relevance with Windows Phone and more worryingly Windows 8.
The one solace for Microsoft will be in the middle of the year. Right now, Windows 8 laptops/ultrabooks/tablets don’t hold much interest with the public as they lose sales to iPads at similar or cheaper prices and increasingly cheaper Macbooks.
However as the next wave of Windows 8 hardware starts flooding the market in the middle of the year, retailers will start drastically cutting prices of existing hardware to clear stock space for the new models. This is Microsoft’s chance as people who may not be interested in a Windows 8 will be tempted by the value for money.
Expect more tie-ins with the successful Xbox brand to try and improve Windows Phone and Windows 8 sales.
HTC
Poor HTC. Much like Nokia lost the war in 2010, HTC lost their place as the Android manufacturer in the same year to Samsung. Despite making better hardware and improving their software this year, I don’t see them gaining any of the ground they have already lost to Samsung. In fact, given their lack of marketing power and interest from the general public, it wouldn’t surprise me if Sony had a real shot at overtaking them by the end of the year.
Sony
Has the marketing power and the hardware to challenge HTC as the second most successful Android hardware manufacturer. And they will need that boost as their PlayStation brand continues to falter.
LG
Since Google under-estimated Nexus 4 demand (which is pretty clear since they also had issues with Nexus 7 & 10 supply as well) LG haven’t come out of it well. The brand has, unfairly I believe, taken a beating in the technology press due to the stock issues. As a result, what should have been a shot in the arm for LG’s mobile division has become a knockout blow they may never come back from.
Despite this, Google will likely give them another go at the next Nexus as a consolation.
RIM
Much like Windows Phone and Palm WebOS, Blackberry 10 will be a critical hit but a commercial failure. Again a case of too little, too late. Many may say that the smartphone market is still young however I feel that it’s already quite mature. While there maybe a large number of people still without smartphones, they are either going to go with the cheaper Android devices or the top of the line Android or iOS option.
On the plus side, RIM seem to finally be heading somewhat in the right direction in developing their enterprise software to manage all types of devices. Transforming into a mobile enterprise software company seems to be their salvation, whether they get to do that before they become irrelevant is another matter,
Ubuntu mobile OS
Likely to have a small but passionate tech following like the desktop OS however, like it’s big brother, it won’t make a dent in the general public at all. A lack of manufacturer support will prevent it gaining any traction and it’s best features will be copied by third party Android apps before it could be released (sound familiar WebOS?).
Firefox OS
No manufacturer support + no outstanding features + no native apps = dead on arrival. While HTML5 apps sound good for cross-compatibility, like Facebook has discovered, it can’t compete with native apps for any platform. Why do you think Apple created their App Store in the first place? because developers demanded the ability to create native apps over web apps which Apple initially pushed for.
So, that’s my extremely long predictions for 2013. It will be interesting to view this at the end of the year to see just how wrong (or potentially right) I am.